Editors’ note: The writer, Buchi Obichie, takes a look at the political score sheet of Alhaji Atiku Abubakar; focusing on his previous failed presidential bids, and his current bid for the nation’s highest office. She outlines the advantages he has, as well as the obstacles he faces; and advises the former VP to give up his presidential ambitions, and focus on being a 'kingmaker' instead.
If at first you don’t succeed, pick yourself up and try again. Those were the immortal words of the late great princess of pop, Aaliyah.
Those words are just as true for all aspects of life, including politics; and they are probably words that Atiku Abubakar lives by!
The former vice president announced his ‘highly anticipated’ defection from the All Progressives Congress (APC) to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on Friday, November 24, and the political space has been agog with reactions to the development, since then.
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Atiku Abubakar is a household name. The man has been involved in the political scene since the third republic, and has had clear presidential ambitions since 1993 when he contested for the presidential ticket on the platform of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), but lost to MKO Abiola at the primaries.
After that, there were 3 other failed attempts- in 2007, when he lost the general elections to Yar’Adua after gaining the ACN ticket; in 2011, when he lost the PDP ticket to GEJ ; and in 2015, when he lost out at the APC primaries, to Muhammadu Buhari.
But now again, like the ‘Phoenix’ of myth, Atiku has risen from the ashes, and is poised to take another shot at the presidency; but will he get it this time?
Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (Photo credit: Pointblank News)
A lot of factors stand in his way- he still has to contest with other PDP gladiators including the formidable Sule Lamido, for the ticket; he has issues with OBJ- every serious politician knows it is never good for business if Baba Iyabo holds a grudge against you. And then, there’s the issue of the man who currently holds the seat- Muhammadu Buhari- who even though has lost the affection of many Nigerians, still holds a lot of clout, especially in the North.
Atiku certainly has some advantages which can’t be ignored. The man has a formidable structure on ground and is said to be able to pull crowds at short notice. He has deep pockets and can fund a nationwide campaign easily. He also has some sound policies to integrate into a manifesto- a strong commitment to education, a firm belief in restructuring, and an alleged dedication to youth development.
But then, after 4 previous failed attempts, can Atiku win this time?
In my own opinion, Atiku Abubakar seems to be the man who helps others win, but always ends up being sidelined.
It happened in 1993, when after finally standing down and directing his supporters to help Abiola secure the SDP presidential ticket, he was eventually cast aside as choice of VP, and the slot given to Babagana Kingibe.
In 2003, Atiku had a genuine chance to become president when PDP governors reportedly declared their readiness to help him unseat his then boss, OBJ; but then, at the critical midnight hour, Atiku cast his lot in with Baba Iyabo, who went on to win re-election. Afterwards though, the VP was branded as being ‘disloyal and corrupt’ by his boss, and eventually had to exit the PDP, after crying out that he had been marginalized.
Again, Atiku lost out to Buhari during the APC primaries before the 2015 presidential election, and then went on to support Buhari’s election campaign. Yet again, after the APC ousted the PDP and Buhari won the presidency, Atiku was again ‘marginalized’.
In his own words: “After the formation of government, I was sidelined. I have no relationship with the government. I have not been contacted even once to comment on anything and in turn, I maintained my distance.
"They used our money and influence to get to where they are; but 3 years down the line, this is where we are.”
Familiar words right? Yes. The former VP used similar words against the PDP, when he abandoned the party for the APC in 2014.
So what do I think Atiku should do?
Honestly, I think the man should abandon his presidential dreams. It doesn’t make him a quitter, but a realist.
Atiku seems like he would always be the catalyst for others, and nothing more; and with each failed attempt, he is further watering down his brand. The forces that stand against him becoming president seem to be stronger than those that want him to fulfill his lifelong quest.
Buhari managed to secure the presidency in 2015 after 3 previous failed attempts, but I honestly doubt that Atiku can achieve the same feat after his own previous failed attempts.
For one, he doesn’t have a ‘Jabagan/Asiwaju’ in his corner; and like I said, he has issues with Baba Iyabo. Also, he still cannot match up to Buhari in the North…at this point. Plus, he is not the only political gladiator vying for the presidential ticket in the PDP.
So, what would I do if I were Atiku?
I would become a ‘godfather’ instead. Yes, I would use my political influence and resources to position myself as a ‘kingmaker’. I would consolidate my political structures across party lines, and become the ‘go-to-man’ for contestants interested in political office; and I would fulfill my political agendas through those I help succeed.
I won’t be naïve though. I would find a way to always ‘put their necks to the knife’, applying a ‘stick and carrot’ approach.
There would be something to be used against them, if they dare turn their backs on me. Ruthless right? Yes. But at this point, Atiku would be justified in becoming that way. After being used and dumped so many times, he would owe it to himself, to always have the upper hand with those he helps to get elected.
It’s a jungle out there, and one must adjust to the times.
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But would Atiku take this advice? Probably not. Because it seems that like the proverbial Fly, the man is destined to close his ears to sound reason…and that’s why Atiku Abubakar would probably keep zigzagging across political parties, seeking for one that can help him fulfill his life-long ambition of becoming president, even when he can be something else…just as great…but behind the scenes!
If at first you don’t succeed, pick yourself up and try again. Yes. But on the other hand, if after multiple attempts at one thing, you don’t succeed, you should probably try something else!
This opinion piece was written by Buchi Obichie.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the editorial policy of NAIJ.com.
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