The Congressional Budget Office estimated that XXX million people could lose their insurance under the American Health Care Act.
The Congressional Budget Office on Monday estimated that as many as 24 million more people could be uninsured and the federal budget deficit would shrink by more than $300 billion over the next decade under the Republican healthcare bill.
The findings came in a much-anticipated report detailing the possible effects of the American Health Care Act, the GOP leadership's plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.
The report estimated the effects of the AHCA on a variety of elements, including coverage totals, the federal deficit, and the cost of premiums in the individual market.
Here's a rundown of the major findings:
- 14 million more people would be uninsured under the law in 2018, increasing to 24 million by 2026: The CBO projected that as many as 14 million more Americans could be without health insurance under the AHCA in 2018. After possible changes to Medicaid went into effect, the CBO projected this number could rise to 24 million by 2026.
"The reductions in insurance coverage between 2018 and 2026 would stem in large part from changes in Medicaid enrollment — because some states would discontinue their expansion of eligibility, some states that would have expanded eligibility in the future would choose not to do so, and per-enrollee spending in the program would be capped," the report said. "In 2026, an estimated 52 million people would be uninsured, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under current law."
- The federal deficit would shrink: The CBO, along with the Joint Committee on Taxation, estimated that the bill would decrease the federal deficit by $337 billion over the next 10 years.
- The individual market would remain stable: The report said the individual market — that is, people getting coverage who do not have it from an employer or government program — would remain stable if the AHCA is passed. The CBO also said that the market under the current ACA is stable as well. "In CBO and JCT’s assessment, however, the non-group market would probably be stable in most areas under either current law or the legislation," the report said.
- Premiums in the individual market would increase in 2018 and 2019, before falling due to lower enrollment: The report also estimated the impact on premiums in the individual market, saying that costs would increase in 2018 and 2019 before declining thereafter. The CBO and JCT did say that provisions of the AHCA would raise premiuyms for older Americans "substantially" while shrinking them for younger Americans.
"The legislation would tend to increase average premiums in the nongroup market prior to 2020 and lower average premiums thereafter, relative to projections under current law," said the report. "In 2018 and 2019, according to CBO and JCT’s estimates, average premiums for single policyholders in the nongroup market would be 15 percent to 20 percent higher than under current law, mainly because the individual mandate penalties would be eliminated, inducing fewer comparatively healthy people to sign up."
Critics of the law had been pointing to the CBO score as a way to fully understand the potential impact of the AHCA on the federal budget and the US healthcare system.
House Speaker Paul Ryan in a statement on the report said that it proved that the AHCA could be successful. From Ryan:
"I recognize and appreciate concerns about making sure people have access to coverage. Under Obamacare, we have seen how government-mandated coverage does not equal access to care, and now the law is collapsing. Our plan is not about forcing people to buy expensive, one-size-fits-all coverage. It is about giving people more choices and better access to a plan they want and can afford. When people have more choices, costs go down. That’s what this report shows. And, as we have long said, there will be a stable transition so that no one has the rug pulled out from under them."
The White House and proponents of the AHCA have spent much of the past week casting doubts on the CBO score, in an attempt to blunt the expected blow from the report.
In a press conference last week, White House press secretary Sean Spicer said, "If you're looking at the CBO for accuracy, you're looking in the wrong place." Other White House surrogates like National Economic Council chair Gary Cohn and Office of Management and Budget director Mick Mulvaney criticized the CBO's accuracy in interviews on Sunday.
The AHCA passed the House Energy and Commerce and Ways and Means committees on Thursday, and it is scheduled be considered by the House Budget Committee on Wednesday.
This is a developing story...
